A strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.

The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts about the future, such as demographics, geography, military, political, industrial information, and mineral reserves, with plausible alternative social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA) trends which are key driving forces.


Template

The clarification for the fields in the template is given in the Interaction template (Actant Dictionary).

Name Scenario Planning
Domain
Target Outcome A number possible futures for a sector.
Social actors and roles roles
Trigger or preceding interaction Environmental scanning (Wikipedia), a shock, the sensing of an alarming trend in a territory or sector,…
Interfaces and services services
Inputs and outputs inputs:experts opinions of factors, trends, possible events,… outputs: a publication with the identified scenarios, such as for instance: Global Banking 2020: Foresight and Insights
Stores and tools tools
Other characteristics
Part of (Collective) regulative bundle
Parts
Succeeding Interactions Business leaders put their business through the scenario in order to analyse how a business or regulator would perform under a given scenario. See the video The Long-Term Value of Scenario Planning.
Alternatives Scenario planning is one of number of anticipatory thinking protocols. Other such protocols include Delphi method (Wikipedia), Causal layered analysis (CLA) (Wikipedia), Failure mode and effect analysis (Wikipedia), Simulation (Wikipedia). More techniques at Future techniques (Wikipedia).
Action Realm Monitoring & Evaluation
Risks
Further reading Scenario planning (Wikipedia)

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